>>>Is there an answer? Maybe not, but with them spiking like this, turning over the float about every 1.5 days, and even most bulls acknowledging the ridiculousness of it all, it sure is tempting to top pick.<<<
The answer is to leave it alone, IMO. I have found from hard cold experience that chasing a position is a losing game. I take the setup when it is served, and not before. If I wake up one morning and YHOO is down 40%, I'll not cry over missing it. If the news is bad enough, I'll jump on then. CLCX was a great short (which I missed), but the higher percentage trade was to short it after its bad news, not before. The folks who shorted it at 38-39 were lucky, not skillful traders IMO. PRST at 100 (200 presplit)? Didn't that fall a bunch in one day? Was that alousy short from 60? How about ZITL, 30 points in one day from 71 to 40 if I recall correctly? Lousy short after the downtrend was established? Iomega? 27 9/16 (55 1/8 presplit), but the downtrend wasn't really evident until 17 1/2? Closed at 7 1/8 today and will probably go lower tomorrow. That's also been a great short more than once, even after a 30% overnight haircut.
I just find its much more profitable and less risky to bang out the singles than to go for the home run. When I covered my PNDA at 4 19/32 the other day folks said that I should hold out for 2. But I've used the money now in my short of FINE, and that's already up over 10%, while PNDA languishes just under 5. I find I make a lot more money when I'm less greedy, so in order to be truly greedy I give up the potential of huge scores, and bang out the smaller gains. It's kind of paradoxical.
Everybody has to figure what style suits them. I'm only sharing my style with the board, and am not trying to say this is how everybody should trade, just that it's how I trade.
Good luck topticking Yahoo!, I really am rooting for you to do it. But thank the trading gods at least a little if you do it.
Barb |
