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Gold/Mining/Energy : Naxos Resources (NAXOF)
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To: sh who wrote (7171)12/13/1997 11:04:00 AM
From: Lawrence Brierley  Read Replies (1) of 20681
 
sh
It certainly is curious that we are getting little or no bounce out of this tremendous PR. I think what is happening is that a very powerful deflationary feeling is growing in sectors of the market, particularly junior mining. It would be interesting to somehow see the investment profile of the archtypal dd investor. My guess is that (s)he is relatively underinvested in blue chips, with major holdings in small cap mining companies, perhaps a significant stake in other dds. (S)he might also be heavily into tech stocks.

Such an investor has not had a lot of good news lately. Thanks to Alan Vennix we know that if (s)he has been spreading out the risk among several dds, (s)he must be losing. Even for people who completely believe the story and are totally confident that Naxos will one day be a producing PM giant, it would be easy to feel that cash is presently king in this industry, and the best course is to "cash out my one winner and hold out for the bottom of this cycle when I can get all of these stocks even cheaper".

After this weeks price action, I do not believe that any release dealing with gold will will get peoples attention right now. however, a really startling platinum or PGM release would almost certainly change this. So would a geopolitical or financial event which reversed the slide of gold. My own view is that neither of these scenarios are that unlikely over the next year. I believe Henry has it right in thinking of Naxos as venture capital that may need plenty of time to mature.

the best to all.
Lawrence
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