Vince,
<When do you think Athlon mobos supporting AGP4x will be available? I ask because I think the new Nvidia GeForce graphics chip is going to be a driver for gamer purchasing decisions this Xmas as well as a powerful avdertising point for system ads (the specs are awesome compared to the current generation.) VIAs chipset for Athlon supports 4x.>
I have seen some October dates but I am not counting on it for Christmas. If it happens, I will consider it an upside.
<With pretty certain CUmine 733 MHz selling in Oct. and assuming the rumoured 700 MHz Athlon is selling in quant then, Intel will be able to reclaim (by a nose) the MHz crown for the Xmas season, while the benchmarks will still probably favor Athlon by 5-15%. In the public's mind, ties go to the incumbent champ. In that situation, do you think there will be sufficient demand for Athlon 700s (for whatever reason, anti-Intel sentiment, desire for higher FPU perf, higher cost or slower perf of Intel sys due to Rambus, whatever) to allow AMD to sell 1M Aths at $300 asps?>
There are multiple sources confirming 700MHz shipments at this point and I am fairly certain at this point that 700MHz Athlons will be in the channel next month (along with 650s which are hard to get so far). I have a hard time seeing Intel leading on MHz for a long time to come. The ASP part is up in the air. It is clear that Athlon Q3 ASPs aren't going to be good because of the delays. As for Q4, AMD is doing the highest speed ramp for a new CPU that I am aware of in this business. This is also the first time AMD is a serious player in this segment. How it plays out on the ASP side will be interesting to watch. (I take the collapse of PIII-600 ASPs to mean that AMD is gaining sockets albeit at lower ASPs than one would like to see for those speed grades)
<Do you think the reported Rambus problems are something Intel thinks will be fixed by CUmine intro, or that they are hoping simply to bull the change through problems and all? (Blow the horn on the high mem MHz and ignore the probs?) Or is it possible they can come up with a last-minute way to avoid Rambus and still ship CUmine?>
RDRAM is looking pretty iffy right now. My sources tell me PC133 is the main memory for CuMine next quarter but I have public contradictions from intel to weigh that against. I am in the wait-and-see mode.
<Assuming a neck-and-neck MHz race through the end of the year, do you think AMD can sell enough Aths for enough asp to reach profitability by early 2000?>
I think it is strictly a volume game, if AMD has no glitches on the way I have no doubt they will be profitable.
<I am long AMD at 17 7/16s (having sold INTC at 67 to shift) because the upside/downside potential is much greater, however, I don't think AMD has a long window here. I don't assume that Intel is incapable of getting it in gear, so for my purposes, I assume Willamette will arrive in summer 2000 and will be faster than the current Ath design. Thus to expand my current bet I must feel confident that AMD can reach profitability and capture significant public mindshare as an equally good high-perf supplier by spring. Do you think they can meet that challenge? I would include the assumption that Process Boy is correct and CUmine will stay close in the MHz race.>
Clearly, investment decisions are very personal and it has a lot to do with comfort factor. I did not think I would add to my AMD position till I saw at least one more large OEM announce publicly but being pretty certain about the 700MHz story, I bought some more this AM on the dip.
Good luck
Chuck
P.S.: I gotto tell you - I am counting on a pretty strong slew of announcements in the next few weeks. I will trade out in a heartbeat if that does not materialize and if I see continued execution problems. |
