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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Allen Benn who wrote ()3/27/1997 2:40:00 PM
From: Stephen M. Neal   of 10309
 
Two things I disagree with. The "weather forecasting analogy" and the view that TA is short term in nature. A better analogy would be "professional gambler." He has a system. He is sufficiently capitalized. He has an intelligent betting strategy and after he has had a hot streak, he cashes out and goes home.
As for short term TA, I don't believe it can be successful because the transaction costs will be too high and you will never be right even half the time. My best trades so far this year actually were entered last September:Intel and Micron. Both trades were six months in duration which is a median trade for me. Micron is a fabulous trading vehicle and a lousy investment. Intel could be both, but I prefer to trade it. Allen is right about systems, though. If you find a good one, it is best if only a few know about it. Also, any system that advertises 80% accuracy is a sure loser, probably with huge drawdowns.
If you want to lose money quickly, try day trading, a study in futility.
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