I'm not ready to call MMM dead, but that was a pretty convincing way to come down off the top of the wedge. It is acting as you'd expect if the ED were truly done.
Also, that GE chart is getting interesting. Its rally has now run as long as any prior rally in the bear on both time and price, and as such is just at the top of the bear channel. It has broken it slightly, but the breakout has NOT been convincing on a volume basis.
I still favor one more minor high to wrap up a bunch of ending diagonals, and to get that NDX target of yours, not to mention that SOX TL I keep referring to, around 375.
In the longer time frames, I must admit to remaining a hardened bear. The only alternative (I think?) is that this truly is a new bull, and despite the apparent Clownishness of the statement, that is not possible. Bulls require fuel to burn as they run, and this market has no fuel remaining. Bulls don't start with all the institutional clowns long, mutual fund cash at 4%, and only a couple of weeks of pessimism.
Perhaps I'm wrong when I say that the only alternative to fresh down is a new bull; maybe we can go sideways even longer. However, we've been coiling for nine months now, and the coil is going to break, with force. The lack of bullish fuel would suggest the break must be to the downside, as there most certainly is ample fuel for the bear.
Some other random musings off my personal stock log to myself:
BKX wedge breakout failed, then the lower line was crossed this afternoon - however, the breach didn't act right, so it could be reversed Monday. Suspect it may actually be forming a longer ED, ala SPX:
While many already see a five-wave wedge in SPX, their first wave is clearly impulsive. I like an ED there, with the choppy, back-and-forth correctives, but I think it has only done i-ii-iii and we're in iv. A minor new high would be yet to come.
GE looks like five waves, but the fifth may not be complete. GM appears to have fallen out of a wedge in classic fashion; not sure of the count, but it sure looks cooked. MBI structure could be a completed wave 2, with the C an ED. It clearly had trouble with 45.
BTK triangle breakout has held. Since BTK is such an excellent indicator of liquidity, I would have a hard time going short heavily with BTK holding above the breakout.
Sorry, no charts just yet. Perhaps I'll get a second to do some updates.
BC |
