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The conventional wisdom around Washington these days is that the Republican Party needs to pass immigration reform if it’s going to survive. But remember: House Republicans aren’t the same thing as “the Republican Party.” And they probably don’t need to pass immigration reform to keep their majority. In fact, passing immigration reform — at least with a path to citizenship — might put them in more danger. Two figures from Janet Hook in the Wall Street Journal show why.
First, “only 38 of the House’s 234 Republicans, or 16%, represent districts in which Latinos account for 20% or more of the population.”
Second, “only 28 Republican-held districts are considered even remotely at risk of being contested by a Democratic challenger, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.”
So for about 200 of the House’s Republicans, a primary challenge by conservatives angry over “amnesty” is probably a more realistic threat than defeat at the hands of angry Hispanic voters, or even angry Democrats. “Our guys actually do primary over immigration,” a top House Republican aide who wants to get immigration done told me.
Of course, that leaves some 34 Republicans who have reason to fear a Democratic challenge. And it leaves dozens who privately support immigration reform and don’t have much to fear from either Democratic or Republican challengers.
In theory, that’s enough. If 218 members of the House sign a “ discharge petition,” the bill comes to the floor whether Speaker John Boehner wants it there or not. Democrats have 201 members who could sign on. If 17 Republicans joined them, they could bring the Senate immigration bill, or any other immigration bill, to a vote.
In practice, though, discharge petitions are extremely rare. As Jonathan Bernstein writes, “It’s one thing to vote against the party on substance; it’s a much bigger deal to work with Democrats to gain control of the House floor.” Unless the discharge petition was the leadership’s preferred approach to bring a bill to the floor, the reprisals against the rebels would be tremendous.
All of which is to say, there are, in practice, two reasons an immigration bill with a path to citizenship might pass the House. The first is that enough House Republicans think it’s good policy. The second is that enough House Republicans think it’s good politics. What’s not going to push the bill through the House is House Republicans believing it needs to pass for them to keep their seats and their majority in the next election. If anything, that math might be slightly against immigration reform. |
