Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 201.98

-2.4%

11:48 AM EST

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To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7217)	11/3/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	of 10921

<<a. does the graph have to have positive slope (positive first derivative) or b. is it enough for the second derivative to be positive while the first derivative is still negative? ie the curve is becoming less negative?>> Hi Jess, long time no see. Sorry to be so inconsistent, but I've cashed out on the mini-rally and might not buy back in until I see prices 5% higher than they are now. It's hard to gauge the sector on btb, since this very sizeable rally occurred on severely deteriorating slope and negative acceleration. Any sound financial advisor would not consider investment in this sector, not only until the first derivative is positive, but also until the btb itself is positive, unless there was some increased transparency in the recovery. What I'm trying to say is, playing this sector cannot be considered an "investment" at this point. It's a gamble driven by market hysteria and greed, i.e. players hoping for a huge score on another huge upswing such as we've seen in the past. I therefore think intelligent buy-sell decisions must consider technical and momentum issues as a primary tool, together with sheer gut instinct about how long slavering traders can hold off buying into the sector. Myself, I'm going to watch the MACD for AMAT, KLIC, and TER or COHU. Most people agree that actual profit recovery will occur first in back-end, and the several larger caps appear to have more success in early recovery periods. Anticipating this sector is a game of "Indian poker" (if you've ever played it -- all the players hold their hole card face-out on their forehead so that everyone but they themselves can see it!)

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