Lucretius, where in the world do you get this nonsense from:
"...the Feds are going to print a little money."
Do you understand the implications of decreasing interest rates in a non-inflationary environment? I also think you haven't the vaguest idea of how high tech components continually drop in price (neglecting currency fluctuations). A stark example of this occurred during the 1970's when the USD weakened significantly, and inflation was high but the cost of components continued to drop. Look at the cost of hand-held calculators and color TV during this period for graphic proof of my contention.
I think you are so wedded to the idea that Dell will crash and burn that you have lost all semblance of objectivity. Sure, continuously increasing component prices hurt those with little or no inventory. But you are making several assumptions. First, you are assuming a continuous weakening of the USD with component purchases made with USD -- so you are completely neglecting the effects of Brazil, Europe, Malaysia, and China. Second, you are assuming that component prices will see a continuous rise. In effect, your assumptions are tantamount to inflation, and there is no evidence in favor of either contention.
Decreasing interest rates will result in the repatriation of cash to countries like Japan where liquidity problems are extreme, especially if European banks follow suit. The hoped for result is an improvement in those stagnant economies. If that happens business in the the US and Europe will see a significant improvement in the second quarter of 1999.
TTFN,
CTC |
