Yikes, so much for a warm welcome. Let's see if I can live up to the Post Patrol's manly-men standards. As for you Aggie, pull your head in next time before you close your windows.<g>
My picks for the best values? As I see it the values are getting pretty scarce.
I use PSR are my primary indicator of value, combined with net margins and PE's (if they've got 'em). I do this by tracking past quarterly results and projecting future results out several years. These estimates are based on general knowledge of the industry, how the companies did last time around in up and down quarters, and any current changes such as acquisitions, newbuilds, upgrades, etc. I've found that this method gives damn good indications of what stocks are good values, and which ones are not, relative to their peers.
For land drillers I like in order:
STXD, PKD, PDS, TBDI
Of these guys I particularly like STXD based on their extremely low valuation and great recent growth, and PDS based on their low valuation and prospects for a huge Canadian drilling boom this winter.
For offshore drillers I like in order:
PDE, ATW, RDC, FLC
Of these guys the only glaring value left is PDE, all the rest are getting a bit rich compared to where they got in '97.
For equipment makers and service companies I like in order:
FGH, SCSWF, OII, KEG, SII
FGH is a special case because the risk of them never getting their act together is very real. OII is also in the camp of having trouble ever building shareholder value (but I have hope). KEG is still a steal and SII is a good company and good value.
I don't know the E&P's like I know drillers, but for grins here are my holdings:
EPG, XTO, MND, HGT, EOG, FST, OEI, TMR
By far my biggest hit was XTO Feb. calls the 17.5's are up 183% and 25's are up 253% in a couple months time - I sure wish all of them went that way. My biggest position is in FLC, with Dec. 30 calls up 98% and March 20's up 114%. In the last few days I've been selling a few FLC calls and using the cash to buy PDS, PDE, MND, and EPG in an effort to get more gas and to pick up some laggards.
Good luck to you,
Sharp |
