George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (705)	10/17/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: George Gilder	of 5853

Thanks for the fascinating bandwidth debate in this thread. But I sense a manic depressive oscillation between a belief that bandwidth will be too abundant and cheap (like transistors?) and a belief that it will be effectively scarce because of last mile bottlenecks and regulatory snarls (like DSL). I think the key is growth in Internet traffic at about 10 fold a year, 1000fold every three years, and a million fold, perhaps, by 2005. Much of the first millionfold rise (from gigabytes per month to petabytes) came on 28.8 modems and crowded T-1 lines. With WDM on land and sea (check out GlobalCrossing for a coming bandwidth colossus), with millions of cable modems from Broadcom and customers, and with Qualcom pdQ phones bearing 2 megabit burst modems in two years (attach your notebook and you have a T1 courtesy of Sprint PCS in Central Park or Park City) and with the telcos facing devastating competition in T1s at last, the technology will keep apace on supply and demand curves three times the Moore's Law rate. At times, supply will surge ahead and prices will plummet, at which point demand will explode. It will be a roller coaster for sure, but that's why we get the big bucks. Right?

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