donsurber.blogspot.com An Erie feeling about this election
Real Clear Politics says Biden averages a 7.1% lead in the polls in Pennsylvania. The last poll to show President Donald John Trump ahead in Pennsylvania was in May. So why did Yahoo just post a story, "In campaign's final stretch, Democrats claw their way back in Pennsylvania"?
If Democrats are that far ahead in Pennsylvania, why is the media saying he is clawing back?
The story said, "last month, Democrats took a step to correct one of their mistakes of 2016 and opened an office in Union City, near the southern border of Erie County. After President Trump won the state by running up numbers in smaller counties and flipping larger ones, Democrats have expanded their attention beyond their urban strongholds in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia."
Kelly Chelton, the office manager of the Biden office, told Yahoo, "We’ve got more Trump supporters than Democrats here, but a lot of people were just really excited to see us here. We have given out literally thousands of signs from this office and we have people coming in here daily."
That is odd.
President Trump took Erie County 57,168 to 54,820, a 2-point win, which was a point better than his statewide 1-point win.
If Biden were ahead by 7, then he would be ahead by 6 in Erie, which is a bellwether of sorts for the state.
I mean, Obama got 57% of Erie County's vote in 2012, which was 5 points better than his statewide total of 52%.
Perhaps it is possible to be down in Erie but up statewide. But the last time Erie got it wrong was in 1988 when it went for Dukakis and the rest of the state went for Bush. The last time before that was 1944, when it went for Dewey instead of FDR. I will take a county that was right aboutv how its state voted in 95% of the last 20 elections
Democrats sweating Erie is an indication that gee, maybe, that 7-point lead is as believable as an email from a Nigerian prince.
538 gives Biden less than a 53% chance of winning Pennsylvania. That also says a lot about that 7-point lead.
And there is this story from CNBC on October 11, 2016, "With just 28 days left to the presidential election, this race will soon be decided. Based on the polling patterns in recent presidential campaigns, it may already be over.
"Rocked by the release of taped remarks degrading women and battered by mass defections from his own party, Donald Trump is now suffering a drop in national public opinion polls as Hillary Clinton pulls ahead.
"As of Tuesday, Clinton leads Trump by 6.5 percentage points, based on an average of national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. That gap may be all but impossible to close by Nov. 8, when voters go to the polls."
A gap all but impossible to close?
Never bet against Donald John Trump.
In the 4 years since the pollsters blew the 2016 election, have they demonstrated any ability to correct their errors? In 2018, they missed Republicans ousting Democrat incumbent senators in Florida, Indiana, and Missouri.
On July 11, I ignored the polls and predicted President Donald John Trump will carry 37 states because Democrats did not reach out to Trump voters. Democrats foolishly believe that they do not need them.
They still spurn us.
Democrats are hung up on 46%, which was Donald Trump's share of the popular vote last time.
The number that matters is 270. That is the number of votes in the Electoral College needed to win the election. That 46% gave him 304 Electoral College votes in 2016, even after a couple of them defected. He carried 30 states that year. He will carry 37 this year. He won't get a landslide, which will burn them even more because once again they will come so close but win no cigar.
Ace of Ace of Spades wrote, "If there were a lot of Trump defectors, the media would be profiling them and lionizing them and promoting them 24-7. But I haven't seen a single story about Trump 2016-Biden 2020 defectors."
That is a very valid point. It is what the reporters do not report that tells the tale.
The only people reporters parade around are Cindy McCain, Carly Fiorina, and others who did not vote for President Trump in 2016. They bother me about as much as farts in some field in Montana that I will never smell.
Meanwhile, Johnny Rotten has gone from "don't you dare vote for Donald Trump" to "Of course I'm voting for Trump."
Ace also wrote, "Of all the people they know -- including RINOs and squishes and Never Trumpers who voted against Trump in 2016 -- many of the Never Trumpers are now reluctant Trump voters, and many of 2016's reluctant Trump voters are now enthusiastic Trump voters.
"On the other hand, they don't know anyone who has moved from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden.
"One friend tells me that the suburban well-to-do Wine Moms and Squish Sisters he knows are now fully on the MAGA train.
"Everyone they know who's moved on The Trump Question (and Trump seems to be the only issue in 2020) has moved in favor of Trump."
But there are useful polls out there, just not the ones that ask people how they will vote.
Others are reviewing the situation and coming up to the same conclusion. Something's up. Biden cannot have a 7-point lead and panic like a last-minute shopper on Christmas Eve.
Paul Bedard reported, "Add John Zogby to the growing number of Democratic pollsters questioning major media surveys showing a double-digit lead by Joe Biden over President Trump.
"'It’s closer than you think,' according to Zogby, who’s own John Zogby Strategies survey puts Biden’s lead at two points, 49%-47%.
"In his latest podcast with son and pollster Jeremy Zogby, John Zogby said that polls showing a bigger Biden lead are using a bad model, one that includes far too many Democrats.
"His model follows the partisan turnout in 2016 that was about 34% Republicans and about 38% Democrats."
We did it before, we will do it again.
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