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Strategies & Market Trends : Gann's cycles

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To: Jaime H. Ayalde who wrote (72)6/1/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: nicewatch  Read Replies (1) of 191
 
Hi Jaime, you're welcome for the reference. I threw it up there more for fun than anything else. Most of the analysis revolves around elliott wave... an "art" (not science, imo) that I have yet to fully grasp and apply... although interesting nonetheless. I agree completely with you about the importance of time over price.... my own work has supported this idea, hitherto.... BWDIK. "When Time is over, the trend will change" -WD Gann This a great quote...... it is true to me in some ways.... but written in such a vague manner that it could be interpreted a million different ways, imo. <ggg> Gann also spoke about the overbalancing of price and time. Here again, I'm sure there's a bunch of different ways to interpret this.... but one suggested to me by a friend (from a newsletter he gets..... i forget the name, but don't want to try and take credit for this <g>) was to use the length of a correction (in calendar days) and compare it to the length of all corrections in any bull/bear market (let's say this bull started in 82, for the longer term cycle). My friend says that since 1984, all market corrections have lasted no longer than 2 months, 25 days. The idea is that the *long term* trend cannot change to down until there is a correction which lasts at least 2 months 25 days. Based on a 5/13/99 high, that date is roughly the end of first week of august (8/6/99, or so). A correction going beyond that would overbalance time, and signal a change in trend... or at least that's the idea. <g> It's an interesting idea.... I wonder how it will play out going forward. Talk to you later, take care Regards, Frank
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