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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock?
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To: daffydog who wrote (7297)4/19/1999 7:49:00 PM
From: FR1  Read Replies (3) of 19700
 
You're getting warm.

The optimum day to sell would be July 5, 1999 (if you guts enough to wait till the last second).

Here is what I saw
1) You look at the earnings calendar for the nets.

2) In January, and also this time, the first week in which a lot of nets report is third week (week of Jan 11 and week of April 12).

3) In both instances, the monday of that week was the last big up day (Jan 11 and April 12). It is also the last day before the reports really start coming out.

4) Then they hammered and hammered hard.

5) After two days they let up for a day or so and then back to hammering for a few days which is where we are now. Pretty much the same in jan.

This would imply you sell July 5 and buy back after the damage. Most of the real bad damage is done in 2 weeks (therefore, the week of July 5 and July 12).

You will know when they are done. It'll look like Gettysburg battlefield with everybody down 35-50%. The wounded don't want help - they want euthanasia. Kind of like today.

Don't be dumb like me. Here is my dumb move:
1) After having analyzed all this, I decided to sell almost all my nets April 8th because the MMs might sell early (and the sell off is super fast).

2) Then I watched the nets zoom up the ladder between Jan 8 and Jan 12th. I really kicked myself for not trying to sell closer to the kill day.

3) As soon as we had the first big sell off, I told myself "Hey, it's all over! Maybe there is not going to be a second leg down! Let's stock up!"

4) So they nailed me good on the second leg down. what pisses me off is that I knew better but let my gambling emotions take over. Oh, well. At least I didn't buy deep into margin. Now I'll just wait for recovery.

Mark, be sure and remind me of this conversation in July. I don't want to go get emotional and do this all over again.

Oh yeah, one other thing - we can't stop the MMs but we can make them pay by buying puts which are cheap at that time. I picked up a few thousand on that but stupidly sold too soon for the reason above.
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