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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.92

+0.1%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (7309)	11/28/2002 5:00:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95501

It's not trivia in my opinion Don. History does have a habit of repeating itself. Click on link to see the charts: amateur-investors.com Mid Week Market Analysis (11/27/02) After Tuesday's action it looked like some potential trouble was brewing however it appears that this was just a fake out attempt to scare some investors out of the market and draw the shorts back into the market to get squeezed. The Dow closed on Wednesday near its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). If it continues higher in the near term the next area to watch for additional resistance would in the 9100-9200 range which is near the August high (9120) and 200 Day Moving Average (green line) around 9200. Since the October 10th bottom the Dow has now rallied nearly 25%. The Nasdaq closed just above its 200 Day EMA on Wednesday and is now entering a significant resistance zone between its 200 Day EMA near 1480 and 200 Day MA around 1500. Since the October 10th bottom the Nasdaq has now rallied nearly 35%. Meanwhile the next level of resistance to watch for in the S&P 500 if it continues higher is around the 965 area which coincides with its August high and 200 Day EMA (blue line). Since the October 10th bottom the S&P 500 has rallied 22%. As mentioned this past weekend considering how far the major averages have rallied since the October 10th low there maybe some type of multi-week pullback sometime in December similar to what occurred in the Fall of 1998. The chart of the Dow from 1998 shows that it rallied nearly 27% from early October (point J) until the end of November (point K) while completing a "Double Bottom" pattern. The Dow then pulled back during the 1st two weeks of December (points K to L) before rallying strongly going into Christmas (points L to M). The Dow has rallied nearly 25% since the October 10th low and if by chance it rises back to around 9100 then that would lead to a 27% gain as well. The question remains will history repeat itself with a similar pullback developing during the 1st two weeks of December like occurred in 1998 before rallying strongly again going into Christmas?

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