Interesting post from the Storm2k boards ... this guy has been keeping track of the 5 day advisory and isn't a big fan of it. I agree with him to some extent, a couple days ago everyone in creation thought Pinellas county would be destroyed and people went on a gas-buying panic:
For the record, I've expressed my disdain for the 5 Day forecast before. I seem to remember that the main reason that was given for switching to it was so that the Navy could get their ships out (which they couldn't do with 72 hour notice). I say fine - tell the Navy. I also seem to remember that NHC did NOT want to issue the 5-Day forecast, but were told to do so anyway. Can anyone confirm or deny that?
For the residents of Florida, this has been a week of anxiety, for literally the entire coastline - but especially for the gulf coast.
Let's look back:
----------
Wed 11pm Advisory:
72 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Sat): between Little Cayman and central Cuban coast. Off - but not all that bad.
120 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Mon): Very close to Punta Gorda.
----------
Thu 11am Advisory:
72 hr forecast position (actually 8am Sun): between Little Cayman and the west-central Cuban coast. Again - Off - but still not all that bad.
120 hr forecast position (actually 8am Tue): After predicting landfall in Charlotte Harbor - the 8am Tue position has it just west of Orlando, as an 85 kt hurricane.
----------
Thu 11pm Advisory:
72 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Sun): near the west-central Cuban coast. Will end up not being great, but still well within the avg. error margin.
120 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Tue): After predicting that it will graze Pinellas County as a 120 kt hurricane (think about what would have meant to Tampa Bay), it puts the 8pm position near Cedar Key. (*Note* - the western edge of the margin of error for this advisory was just west of Mobile.)
----------
Fri 11am Advisory:
72 hr forecast position (actually 8am Mon): exiting the west-central Cuban coast and moving very close to Key West. This will likely be a fairly large miss - but still barely within the 72 hr avg. margin of error.
96 hr forecast position: (actually 8am Tue): still forecast to graze Pinellas County (and fill up Tampa Bay) as a 100 kt huricane.
120 hr forecast position (actually 8am Wed): Up near Macon, GA as a 40 kt tropical storm.
----------
I guess that's enough. We get the picture.
This has been a difficult system to predict. It has been on the far western side of the 72 hr error margin multiple times. This greatly compounds the errors at 120 hrs, causing near panic for millions of Floridians. Sure, NHC could have shifted their tracks westward earlier a few times, but didn't. Was it a bit of CYA forecasting? Perhaps, but seeing as how Bonnie, Charley, and Frances have all ended up to the right of the predicted gulfcoast landfall, I can't say that I blame them for waiting it out a bit before changing. Overall, I think they've done a decent job within the 72 hr time frame - certainly not great, but decent, all things considered. At hours 96 and 120, they CLEARLY state : "ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY". When's the last time you heard someone give those numbers on a national broadcast?
Just my opinion (as a broadcast met), but I think that the 5-day forecast may offer some usefulness to emergency planners, but it can be downright detrimental (with emphasis on the MENTAL part) in the hands and minds of the public.
It's not easy telling my viewers over and over again about the margin of error at Day4 and Day5 when all they see is a forecast of a cat 3 or 4 making landfall on their house on TWC, national news, and all over the internet. I've essentially been blackmailed into showing the full 120 hr forecast, even though I'd rather not. I'd love to only show the 72 hr forecast, but then they'll see those Day4 and Day5 forecasts elsewhere, without anyone giving them some guidance as to what they really mean.
Sigh. Sorry this turned out to be so long. I just needed to vent. I know that there is no turning back now. NHC will never be allowed to go back just issuing 72 hr forecasts to the public - no way. But . . . perHAPS the residents of south Florida, central Florida, the Big Bend and the Panhandle will realize in the future to look at the Day4 and Day5 stuff with a slightly more skeptical eye.
Perhaps.
I can hope.
Mike
--
p.s. The archived advisories/graphics that I used for this post are here:
Graphics:
nhc.noaa.gov
Advisories:
nhc.noaa.gov |
