(All) For what it's worth, I remember one analyst predicting that Corel's 2nd quarter would be the best quarter of 1997, and indeed the only profitable one (sorry, no source for this). This should make those who believe analysts feel a little better about holding through this Monday (looking beyond the writeoff). But obviously sentiment has changed for the better since that time, now that we have a better fix on the prospects for WP8. Dare I say there hasn't been a better time to hold Corel for quite a while...
I think the biggest worry for this stock now is that Microsoft will somehow stomp its feet and send scared investors into selling territory. I find this reaction absurd - we have seen how the reaction to MSFT's big Office profits, which sent Corel to CAN$7.00, has corrected. A lot of articles make a big deal about Cowpland fighting "Goliath", which seems to imply that a more prudent thing to do is let one big company run the whole software industry. I would personally be more worried if there were 15 different office suites, and Corel was vying for a share of that market. Corel has, I think, positioned itself as the alternative to MSFT wares in a number of ways: specialty suites, better prices, and as the second place office suite, it should get the trickle-down from all those tired of MSFT (a market segment which I swear should only be growing!). Wow, I appear to be saying that Corel may actually benefit from Microsoft's monolithic presence!
Sean |
