|
Fred: (1) Roll revenue growth (i.e., last four quarters over
previous four quarters) to squeeze out seasonality, then Intel's
last three quarters say 4%..3%..2%.. (another 2% this quarter, probably). Whew! Scorch me with revenue growth! -g-
(2) A thought experiment: say Intel grows revs and earns
25% a year until it's "too big" (I figured, 'til its revs make up
ten times as much of 5%-slow-growing US GDP as they do now), at
which point, it'll grow with GDP, and boost dividend payout to
a befitting amount, say 50% of earnings. What's the total return
embedded in this optimistic scenario? Ans: 11.6%. (3) An
anecdote about bandwidth: my father, whom easily could afford
it, is cancelling his cable modem. 56k was fine. Besides,
in a broadband world, the CPU is not the bottleneck. (4) You
want competition? In a word, Via. Intel won't be able to
sue their way out of this one. (conclusion) I think you're
wrong about Intel's prospects. If you're right after all,
hey, enjoy those 12% returns. -g- -mb |
