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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: jeffbas who wrote (7349)5/28/1999 9:39:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd   of 78652
 
Jeff: <<states are advised to watch out for deteriorating patient care -- not deteriorating company health. Politicians will not look to themselves for causing patient care problems and have little interest in the relationship between making money and debt service and patient care. Don't count on them for logical solutions.>>
The industry is working hard to educate the Pols. Regarding the senior citizen sectors, which has been my primary focus, the 80+ population is increasing @ 3x the rate of the general population. The cost of capital in this industry is through the roof. Thus building should trail demand...at least in the sector serving Medicare. The industry is probably going to ask the Pols what they're going to tell the members of Tom Brokaw's "Greatest Generation" and the voters concerned with their well being when the howls of protest over no room at the old-folks Inn start coming in. Not that their aren't already considerable complaints. It adds up to a catalyst for change. I suspect we've seen the lows in those not destined for BK. It'll be interesting to see reaction to the first big BK announcement...logic would indicate a sell-off, but I think they jump as market sees more heat on Pols.
<<is there a GM of this industry that will clearly be left standing that we should start watching?>> Good question...I haven't an answer, but looking for the financially strongest might tell us whose best positioned to buy assets cheap when VC and Sun go BK. Of course an external player can't be ruled out.
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