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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.19

-1.8%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Michael Young who wrote (73517)	8/12/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	of 164684

I am not sure what you mean by survive, but the opportunity is at hand for at least 4 of these nets with earnings(aol,ebay,yhoo,gnet) to trade using more conventional valuation techniques. Aol at 70 would be selling at about 70 times next years earnings, while having about a 70% growth rate recently. Ebay at 60 would be about 120x next years earnings, although it is a much bigger leap of faith to assume a .50 year for ebay.(I think they will have a .15 quarter in the next 4, putting them in position to have that kind of full year.)The point is that the nets will survive, and if they will drop 30% more, the numbers will make a good deal of sense. Most likely, they will not quite get that low, but the stock prices will move up slower than the growth rates over the next several months, finally allowing us to gauge proper stock prices vs earnings growth rates.

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