I have a long and consistent track record of posts here at SI. I primarily post on this, the "BLOOD" thread, the AMAT NO Politics thread, and the Full Disclosure thread.
I have had two consistent themes since the beginning of 2001. One has been my 8 purchase recommendations with price ranges and buy increments and the other has been my "model" for this semi equip "cycle".
I have said that this post bubble cycle was different from previous semi-equip cycles and explained why. I have said that this up cycle will be much longer and much slower than other cycles.
I have used a forecast for AMAT as a proxy for the group. I have forecast $20B in revenue in 2007-8. This exceeds the bubble level but it is not soon. I have forecast a cycle peak for AMAT in 2006-7 of $55 - $83.
ASML has stuck to its forecast of 100 tools in H2 2002, up from 78 in H1. The last forecast was for 84-100 in H1 2003. The last market share report I saw, indicated that ASML had 49% in the most recent comparison. This is not as significant as it seems because orders are lumpy and it in part reflects whose customers were ordering that time frame. In any case, "lousy" is subjective, but not inappropriate for this post bubble period.
If you look at some back end companies, you will see that revenues have fallen to very low levels relative to bubble peaks. The leading edge front end companies have done much better because of the steady ramp of advanced technology. As I have stated above, the up cycle will be long and slow. Most of the cycle years will be technology driven until the capacity overhang from the bubble is completely dissipated/obsoleted.
I hope that answers your question. I hope, also, that everyone can see that "fair" prices for the likes of AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS are not as simple as some pundits would like to believe. |
