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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 175.32+0.3%Dec 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: seahorse who wrote (73743)6/13/2000 2:11:00 PM
From: Stu R  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
In May, Bernstein Research issued a very comprehensive and detailed 63 page report titled "Qualcomm's Future Is Beyond the Royalty Stream". In the report they form an opinion of Qualcomm's net present value at $110. They also identify what they consider to be upside "events" and downside risks and correlate what effect each would have on the stock value.
Nokia adopts Qualcomm as "CDMA2000" supplier - add $13

I recommend the report for the analytically inclined.
I found it to be at least as thoughtful and informative as
last year's report from Alex Cena was.

"Implied in Qualcomm's valuation is very strong earnings growth based on the expected dominance of all 3G standards, which we do not view as a certainty, particularly in the W-CDMA space. Since most of the value occurs in the out years and implied discount rates are low, the stock price is determined by assertions, conjectures and loud voices. It is possible to justify a $230 value for Qualcomm based on strong market growth and dominance of the 3G standards. However, it is equally likely that the stock is worth $60. Given the wide range of potential outcomes, our investment approach is simple. We will monitor the likelihood of the key events outlined in this book and change our investment conclusion based on the incremental information."

Stu
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