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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.17

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Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	4/1/2001 2:04:05 PM
From: Saulamanca	of 99985

An Unavoidable Collision thestreet.com According to the optimists, the labor markets are pretty healthy; so consumer confidence, which drives service-sector growth, will rebound and recession will be avoided. Unfortunately, growth in the ECRI's Leading Employment Index plunged to a 19-year low in February: This suggests that the labor markets will get much worse in the coming months. And nothing can undermine confidence as much as the loss of jobs. Ultimately, a worsening job market will feed on itself, causing a recession. As the chart shows, the employment index is clearly at recessionary levels. It is interesting that the last time we predicted a recession, back in February 1990, it was the same index that pushed us over the edge to make that call. It is also notable that, back then, the WLI also corroborated the recession call.

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