Unfortunate news from Sri Lanka:
Tigers bait Sri Lankan government
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - With both the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) pushing into territory under the other's control, the conflict in Sri Lanka has taken a giant leap toward the resumption of civil war.
Although neither side has formally withdrawn from the current Norwegian-brokered ceasefire, the truce exists only on paper. The ferocity of the fighting is intensifying by the day, even as a severely depleted truce-monitoring mission looks on helplessly.
Fighting has raged for almost a fortnight now around the towns of Trincomalee and Mutur in the island's Eastern Province. On July 20, the LTTE shut down a reservoir sluice gate near Trincomalee, in an area under its control. This cut off water supply to tens of thousands of people, largely Sinhalese, in government-controlled areas. The government then conducted air raids on Tiger positions and last Sunday began a ground offensive to take over the reservoir's control point. The Tigers say their blockade of the reservoir was prompted by the government's reneging on a promise to build a water tower to supply water to areas under LTTE control. Both sides claim that their military operations are in "self-defense".
This is the first time since 2002, when the ceasefire agreement was signed, that the Sri Lankan government has ordered a ground offensive. And this is the first time the LTTE and the government are advancing to take control of territory held by the other. While the armed forces are trying to take control of the reservoir, the Tigers are making gains in Mutur.
Neither side has pulled out of the ceasefire. The agreement provides for termination of the truce by either party, but obliges them to give two weeks' notice in writing. Both sides have been guilty of violating the ceasefire over the past four years, but these violations have mounted dramatically since November. Mine blasts, ambushes and bombs have killed more than 800 people this year, and while most of the violence and counter-violence have occurred in the Tamil areas in the island's north and east, suicide bombings also have occurred in the capital, Colombo. The Sri Lankan air force has resorted to aerial bombing of LTTE positions in recent months. Peace talks have been called off.
The current confrontation is being described as a dispute over water, and both sides claim their military operations are humanitarian.
"It is purely a humanitarian issue as we want to supply the civilians with water," said Keheliya Rambukwella, minister of policy planning and government defense spokesman. He described the LTTE blockade of the canal as "a crime against humanity".
But LTTE defense spokesman Rasiah Ilanthirayan said, "There was an urgent humanitarian need to neutralize the Sri Lankan military's attacks on civilian targets."
But this is not just a battle over water.
"Underlying the humanitarian issue are politico-military objectives of far greater import," Hindustan Times' Colombo correspondent P K Balachandran said. "Both sides are jockeying for more advantageous political and military positions in the eastern districts of Sri Lanka. Both want to strengthen themselves there."
The LTTE's position in the east is said to have been considerably weakened after the exit in 2004 of its eastern commander, Colonel Karuna. His departure, unlike that of other Tiger leaders earlier, led to a vertical split in the LTTE. Karuna took with him a chunk of the Tiger cadres, its intelligence apparatus in the east and, most important, support of a sizable proportion of the Tamil population. Karuna's exit also dealt a body blow to the LTTE's claim to speak for eastern Tamils. Over the past two years, Karuna with the support of sections in the Sri Lankan armed forces has managed to eliminate several Tiger leaders in the east.
Balachandran argues that the LTTE is trying to regain support of the eastern Tamils. The LTTE's shutting down of the reservoir needs to be seen in that context.
"The issue of water is an emotive one, and the LTTE stands to gain local support, and support from the eastern Tamils as a whole, if it is able to secure water for them and deny water to Sinhala settlers, who are seen as intruders in a traditionally Tamil area," Balachandran said.
As for the government and the security forces, they "have been itching to capitalize on the depletion of the LTTE's politico-military strength in the east and drive it out of the east altogether, if possible by a quick military campaign".
Eastern Province, especially Trincomalee, is important to both the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government. The LTTE's "Tamil Eelam" consists of Northern and Eastern provinces. Tamils insist that the east was part of the old Tamil kingdom and that it was a Tamil-majority area until successive Sinhalese governments changed its demographic profile by encouraging Sinhalese settlements there.
Trincomalee is often described as the strategic prize the two sides are battling for. It is one of the finest natural harbors in the world. Trincomalee is also the northernmost district of Eastern Province. It is this geographic location and its strategic significance that prompted the government to settle Sinhalese there. In doing so, the government not only made Trincomalee a Sinhalese-dominated district, but also managed to break the contiguity of Tamil-dominated areas, thereby diluting the LTTE claim for a Tamil homeland.
A government official admitted that the ongoing ground and air offensive was "a bit of an excessive response" to the LTTE blockade, but could have been planned with the aim of "completely cleansing Trincomalee district of the LTTE". This, he said, would break the bridge between the two Tiger-controlled districts - Mullaitivu in the north and Batticaloa in the east. He pointed out that the armed forces "were perhaps testing the waters" through the current offensive to see whether the LTTE would stand and defend its territory in the east in the event of a future all-out war, or withdraw to focus on the Jaffna Peninsula in the north.
Both sides are seeking to "change the balance of forces on the ground" through the current fighting, said P Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Colombo-based Center for Policy Alternatives. He told Asia Times Online they are looking for "quick victories that would enable them to negotiate from a position of strength". The government is hoping such a position of strength would enable it to "concede little or nothing at the negotiation table".
Vidhyadharan, editor of the Tamil dailies Sudar Oli and Uthayan, alleges that the government's ground and air assault of LTTE positions in the east is aimed at impressing the Sinhalese-Buddhist hardliners. He points out that the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP, a radical Sinhalese party) and the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU, a party of Buddhist monks) have support among the Sinhalese villagers who have been affected by the LTTE blockade of the reservoir.
"By bombing the LTTE positions, the government is signaling its hardline Sinhalese-Buddhist friends [the JVP and JHU] that it is being tough with the Tigers, especially when it comes to defending Sinhalese interests," he told Asia Times Online.
The government is justifying its disproportionate response to the LTTE blockade of the reservoir. Officials are citing Israel's bombing of Lebanon to justify the aerial bombing and ground operations when a truce was on.
"Denying civilians water is a war crime," said Palitha Kohona, head of the government's peace secretariat. "Wars have started over less. Look at Lebanon."
But the government seems to have miscalculated in its estimation of the LTTE's military capacity in the east. Karuna's exit might have weakened the LTTE, but it seems to have recovered considerably from the loss.
The gains the LTTE has made - it is reported to have captured large parts of Mutur and several army camps - have taken the armed forces by surprise.
By taking on the LTTE in the east, the armed forces might have walked into the Tigers' trap. The LTTE is keen to attack army camps in the east. This is where its nemesis Karuna and his fighters are being provided protection. Under the ceasefire, the LTTE cannot attack army camps. A Tamil journalist said in June that the capture of army camps where Karuna's fighters are staying and the elimination of the Karuna threat are the LTTE's immediate objectives, and this will be the focus of the LTTE when war breaks out.
The government might have scored points with the Sinhalese hardliners with its muscular response to the water problem in the east. But by escalating the conflict, it has provided the LTTE with the opening it was looking for. The government has bitten off more than it can chew.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
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