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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks
NN 15.87+2.5%Dec 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: Serge Collins who wrote (7380)11/13/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: Doug   of 18016
 
S.C: E-Commerce is speculated to be $1G by Y2k+3. Currently there are over 3000 large Firms that have a Sales Org. That sales traffic is supposed to eventually route thru E-Com firms. That is the logic part of it.

Valuation does not figure in the Internet stocks. What counts is perception as described above. It is a game of Musical chairs between
fools holding a seat and greater fools wanting a seat. You need to have a gambling gene to join the game. Fortunately my line of chimps has little or no trace of that.

You are quite correct about the speculative phase of the final leg in a bull market. Currently valuations for the S&P have come down; so we are not there as yet. If we get there ,which is likely by mid 1999, AG is likely to raise rates to damp off the speculation. The FED can control the market on the up side more so than he can on the down side. This is because interest rates are at very low levels and he has lost that flexibility if he lowers further. A case in point is Japan where the Govt Bond now carries a negative rate.(You pay the bank to store your paper)

My concern with NN is that we may be squeezed in by market conditions.
There us a small window of opportunity (5 mths)for NN to recapture its lost value. If it does deliver by then, its fate is more likely to be dictated by the general market.

In real estate its location; out here its timing that makes a difference.
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