Bill, I share some of your thoughts. I sold some position too. But
I only consider it a short-term strategy. In the short-term,
Asia doesn't look good (Europe will probably not be good enough to
compensate this); Clinton doesn't look good; Sunw is near its all
time high; Every analyst and his mom like sunw (I consider it bad).
But my long-term view differs from yours. I agree NT will eat a lot
of the UNIX market. But I think (1) SUNW will be the sole UNIX
heavyweight just like MSFT in PC; (2) SUNW will be smart enough (and
have the technology) not to bank its future on UNIX entirely; in
other words, Java will be big, NC will be big. The money from these
two does not come easily as people expected. But when just as when
PC is popular, so is MSFT, sunw will do well if java and nc are big.
and I think they will be big, despite a lot of suspicion today. Think
of ATM machine, how indispensible they are; a few years from now, NC
will be the same too. I can't imagine we will live in a world with
one platform of computer and one operating system. This hasn't
happened to the auto industry, the telephone industry, the aero
industry, the fast food industry, I don't think it will happen to the
computer industry. Then SUNW will be the archrival coexisting with
MSFT.
So take your profit when SUNW goes back to low 40's, don't be too
greedy and miss the train. That's my two cents.
Shi |
