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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: hlpinout who wrote (73830)12/15/1999 4:05:00 PM
From: Captain Jack   of 97611
 
HIO-- You asked earlier for a light valuation of COMS. This should be conservative as PALM is going to IPO and you know what they do..

Psion revs = about 256 million last year
Palm revs = about 563 million last year

Psion market cap right now is about 3.25 billion.
Double the revenues = double the market cap would
value palm at about 7 billion. The problem with this is that Psion get some revenues from other things.

Psion holds about 13% of the palmtop os market while palm holds about 41% (microsoft 25%) since palm holds
3.15x the market possibly it should have 3.15x the market share or over 10 billion.

Palm being the leader must be worth something extra. I would say that each company has pretty good partners and
contacts. Psion may have the edge in contacts. I guess I might put up to a 50% edge in market cap to the leader.
This would put palm at about 15 billion.

I would put a 1.5x revenues value on the remaining coms and give it a 7.5 billion valuation.

Coms with palm would be worth 22.5 billion or $65/ share.

Oops, I need to add in the $3 cash per share that coms holds.

$68 / share.
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