re: sneaker stocks, a guru among us, and crying over net-nets that tripled after you sold them
What is it about shoe companies? Mike hit on Hyde, Timberland and Finish Line, I hit on Penobscot and Nike. To the thread's credit, I don't recall a single person recommending the value traps - Reebok and Fila. Hopefully others on this thread also made some money on these.
And Mike doesn't want to toot his own horn on this thread, but I will do it for him. Go visit www.valuestocks.net and look at the returns he has chalked up so far this year. He's doing something very right. If he was a mutual fund manager with this track record, even for such a short time, investors would be lining up at his door. Whatever you're doing, Mike, just keep doing it.
And as for Hyde, selling Hyde at 6 doesn't bother me. I bought it at 4. Twice. I sold it at 6 or 6 1/2 twice. Do I wish I had held on and sold today at 21? Of course I do. But if I have a similar stock would I sell it at 6 again? Absolutely. I have seen several net-nets become triples and I have seen others become round-trips (i.e. they go back to 4 - then 3 - then 2). My game is getting that safe 30-50% gain. After that if somebody makes money on the stock, God bless them. Hyde had an NAV of what, 7? So 4-6 was the game I was playing because that game had 50% upside and no risk. 6-21 is somebody else's game. It doesn't bother me, because if I'm playing this game right I've put the money into another Hyde at 4.
I am in another one like that now. Lazare Kaplan has net-net valuation of about $9.50 and I bought it at 7. This one I will hold for a little more than the net-net value because it has some other attributes, but I could build a case that those attributes will take the stock to $30. Will I hold out for $30? Absolutely not. I will start selling this stock at 11-13, scaling out if it keeps going up (I've got a lot of it). From there to 30 is somebody else's game, because that is not the reason I bought it.
JJC |
