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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC)
WDC 169.81+0.5%Dec 8 3:59 PM EST

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To: Glenn T who wrote (7377)11/11/1997 3:58:00 PM
From: Pierre-X  Read Replies (1) of 11057
 
Re: Decreased estimates/Downgrades

>The' anaylists' [sic] (and i use that term loosley!!) Have decreased >predictions signifaicantly for the next year

It should have been quite obvious from the preannouncement that a large swarm of downgrades and preannouncements were on the way. One would expect these to have been discounted into the price on the day of the preannouncement.

QNTM stands the best chance of avoiding a large quarterly disappointment for two basic reasons, their DLT business and minimal exposure to the HDD low end. --IF-- they report in line, we should stabilize the sector and we might even see a bounce.

Your comfort level in a stock varies directly with your depth of knowledge in the business and the company. I watched knowledgeable Altera investors hold firm and not bat an eyelash in the face of a decline from 60+ to 30 (presplit) in early 96, continuing to accumulate shares at what are now in retrospect mind boggling prices. I unfortunately was neither as knowledgeable nor as discplined at the time <g> I fled in panic after riding it from 43 to 35. I kick myself about once a week for that. <g>

The lesson: the market will overpunish stocks that are out of favour, and the HDD sector seems to be today's bad boy. EXCELLENT. I've ridden WDC down from 38 losing a bundle in the process, and, while painful in itself, my capital is waiting in the wings to pile on when the sector turns around, and make a much, much bigger bundle.

Patience and discipline.

Pierre
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