That's not doable imo. Telling a young person essentially to wait, be patient for 2-3 years before making a decision? Is that realistic? Imo, no.
Dr. Graham, Financial Analyst Journal, Sept 1976:
An approach: "It consists of buying groups of stocks at less than their current or intrinsic value as indicated by one or more simple criteria. The criterion I prefer is seven times the reported earnings for the past 12 months. You can use others - such as a current dividend return above seven percent or book value..."
This method "relies on the performance of the portfolio as a whole - i.e on the group results - rather than on the expectations for individual issues."
No need to wait with this method. Presumes metrics work favorably mostly: winners win more than losers lose.
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I say, if you're young and you got money, then buy something. Actually try everything. Plunk that money down. No theoretical buys and watching. Go long, go short, use margin, follow pro value investors into some of their picks, succumb to the internet ads ("I made $30k in three months just following Gloria K"). Buy bitcoin, buy AI. The person will soon learn what works for them and what doesn't. What fits their personality and temperment.
And young enough to recover from any mistakes, debacles.
If I take something like SIMO or MCHP, so technical to me. In two years holding, I'll know more about them, get more confident perhaps, but not a lot, given I'm so diverse in my holdings and not able/willing to spend much time educating myself on the businesses.
Now something so visible, so in the news, so discussed like the airlines and LUV, what the heck is there to learn that's not already visible to us? (Well, there is stuff, maybe unseen to me, that's causing the stock to fall, perhaps?) We know airlines are "a bad business", but can I really see LUV going under? It just needs to get its share of the business. And the business - air travel - doesn't seem to be declining. I can see the product: -- lots of full planes.
The stock is at a low, where it's not stayed in previous years. Yes, I get enthused. Yes, tomorrow I'll possibly find something even more attractive. But after a short 10-min look and consideration, I am in. Planning to buy more if as stock drops. Just saying then - reading advice for somebody to wait 2-3 years, you can see how foreign that is to me. -g- |
