Derek,
It looks like this Kosovo crisis will bring us well into the next European elections I was talking about in my previous post... At least, according to comments by Secretary of Sate M. Albright:
cnn.com
Excerpt:
But she [M. Albright] added "the military is on target" and will further degrade Yugoslav forces as the campaign intensifies. "Nobody expects this to end quickly. ...We have to be very patient with this."
I'm afraid that European electorates will not be as ''patient'' as Ms. M. Albright is prepared to be... And I believe that most EU chancelleries see June 1st as a deadline: just imagine what an awful election campaign our political leaders will have to cope with, should the Kosovo war last until June...
Now, regarding the political settlement of the Kosovo crisis, let me dwell on the necessary removal of Milosevic from power. I told you about Iraq as an experience the U.S. should better avoid to repeat in Europe but, actually, the U.S. together with their European allies have already blundered in Yugoslavia: remember General Ratko Mladic and Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic? Not to speak of infamous war lord Arkan who's been put on the official war criminal list. Apparently, it didn't prevent him from granting CNN live interviews, dressed in a classy Armani suit...
Here's the after-crisis scenario the U.S. should avoid to replay with the current Kosovo conflict:
cnn.com
Excerpt:
A French intelligence officer, Major Herve Gourmelon, long known for his pro-Serb sentiments, apparently got too chummy in his dealings with Karadzic's people and was yanked back to Paris last December. Press leaks out of Washington charged that Gourmelon had warned Karadzic of the kidnapping operation and had even given him the plans. The French admitted their officer had exceeded his authority but denied that he handed over, or ever possessed, the top-secret operational details. Furious over the episode, Chirac ordered an investigation, which concluded that there had been some "carelessness" but "no grave fault."
The Gourmelon affair undermined, at least temporarily, Franco-American cooperation on the war-criminals issue. The plan to arrest Karadzic was put on hold in the late summer of 1997 by U.S. General Wesley Clark when he learned of the Gourmelon meetings. Last week the New York Times reported that Washington had finally scrapped all plans to nab Karadzic and Mladic because of U.S. military fears of a bloodbath, repeated French hesitations and the risk of Serb aggression.
U.S. officials contacted by TIME deny that any such hard-and-fast decision has been made and insist the arrests remain a priority. But they say a raid is unlikely at this time for a number of reasons. Among them: an improving situation on the ground. "Their freedom of movement is shrinking," a U.S. military officer says of Mladic and Karadzic. "Sooner or later, they are going to fall off a tree like dead fruit."
Remember that the Gourmelon affair was followed by the Bunel affair in November 1998... Right now, ''dead fruit'' Gen. Mladic is said to be beside Milosevic in Belgrade, probably handling some military mission in the Kosovo war...
If the U.S. had captured both Karadzic and Mladic as a condition of the Dayton agreement then Milosevic would have thought twice about molesting ethnic Albanians. Instead, he saw the U.S.'s powerlessness in enforcing international justice for these two war criminals.
Back to the impact of the Kosovo war on the coming EU elections, we can easily anticipate the full-fledged election campaign to start next week: that means TV-talkshows, political meetings, political mails, newspaper full-page advetorials, etc... And, obviously, far-right, jngoist parties to take the lead on the anti-NATO, anti-U.S. front.
Let me remind you that, in the midst of the Gulf War (1991), French FN leader J.-M. Le Pen publicly visited Saddam Hussein in Baghdad! (Officially) Not as a government emissary but more as a political supporter of Saddam's regime. So, let me predict you this: I see it possible that, as soon as May or before June 10th some Western European political leaders will go to Belgrade in order to support Milosevic's ethnic-oriented policy. Jingoist leaders from Germany, France, or Belgian Flanders might already have booked their trip...
Any thought?
Gustave. |
