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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 408.76+2.6%Jan 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: KyrosL who wrote (74318)5/19/2011 8:36:01 PM
From: tom pope   of 219012
 
Very interesting, and a more (cliche alert) granular explanation than Chanos' - Wow there's a lot of residential building in China!

The Chinese have shown themselves to be adept at managing their economy (adepter than us, at least), and we have to hope they continue to pull off the improbable.

(OTOH - this is what Lapolla wrote six months ago. Six months don't prove him wrong, but they do prove that forecasting the future is tough.)

And although such cataclysmic shocks rarely result in rhythmic, straight line fractures, the chain of price adjustments should be relatively clear. Accordingly, we expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar, broad-based weakness across the commodity sector, a dramatic widening of emerging market credit spreads, and what could prove to be a stampede of hot fund flows out of the emerging markets.
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