G.O.P. Optimistic That It Can Keep Control
By CARL HULSE
ASHINGTON, Oct. 2 - Congressional Republicans are poised to hold or to slightly expand their majorities in the House and Senate this November, though Senate Democrats retain an outside chance of slipping back into control.
As they analyze the House contests, most lawmakers, strategists and independent handicappers see little opportunity for Democrats in the House to gain the dozen seats they need to capture the majority, given the small field of competitive races being run on issues ranging from a candidate's business history to old tax votes. Democratic leaders reject that view.
In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 51-to-48 majority, with one independent, at least eight races could go either way and incumbents are threatened in a handful of others, putting command of that chamber in doubt, though Republicans hold the advantage.
Senate Democrats say their prospects are significantly improved from last year, when a rash of retirements sparked talk of a major shift toward the Republicans, and they boast of formidable campaigns in Southern and Western states that typically favor the opposition.
"Given the fact that we are running in tough territory, we are in a very, very strong position," said Senator Jon Corzine, Democrat of New Jersey and chairman of the party's Senate campaign effort. But he acknowledged that he had little margin for error.
"I am not declaring victory," Mr. Corzine said. "I am declaring that we are right at the cusp of being able to take this back."
Republicans dismiss such talk and note that Democrats have more seats to defend. They say the combination of President Bush at the top of the ticket and the traditional Republican leanings of states like Alaska, Colorado, Oklahoma and the Carolinas will ultimately carry their candidates there to victory. And for the main prize, the party also hopes to oust the Senate Democratic leader, Tom Daschle, in South Dakota, where he is in a tight race with John Thune, a former congressman.
"If things breaks right, I expect we could pick up a couple of seats," said Senator George Allen of Virginia, Mr. Corzine's Republican counterpart.
While the Senate Republican organization has a significant financial advantage over the Democrats, both parties have been busy raising money for the final push, leaning on senators with fat campaign accounts to contribute to the party. Several have provided checks of up to $1 million.
Party strategists say their top-tier candidates will have the financial resources they need, with both parties planning significant advertising in crucial states.
No national theme has emerged in the Senate races, media advisers and party operatives say, though all candidates proclaimed their support for better domestic security in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, an issue that has joined taxes as a frequent topic. On the tax front, Democrats have found what they consider a successful theme in the South Carolina race, one they would like to nationalize: a Republican proposal for a federal sales tax to replace the income tax.
Backed by more than $1 million in advertising from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina education superintendent and a Democratic candidate for Congress, has pounded her Republican opponent, Representative Jim DeMint, for his support of a national sales tax that she contends would drive up the cost of consumer goods for middle-class families. The issue has helped make the race very close, but one of Mr. DeMint's advisers says the tax focus will ultimately backfire on Democratic candidates.
"They are barking up the wrong tree," said Scott Howell, a Dallas-based media consultant working on Mr. DeMint's campaign. "People hate the I.R.S. And Democrats have no credibility on taxes."
Next door in North Carolina, Erskine Bowles, a Democrat who lost a Senate bid two years ago, has consistently led Representative Richard M. Burr, a Republican, in polls. Mr. Burr has recently gained ground with advertisements linking Mr. Bowles, a former White House chief of staff, with his former boss Bill Clinton on trade and tax policies. Democrats are optimistic that they can hold the seat being vacated by John Edwards, partly because Mr. Edwards is on the ballot as the Democratic vice-presidential candidate.
The Democratic strategy to recapture the Senate rests on the ability to win Republican-held seats in Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma. Recent polls there have shown the Democratic candidates narrowly ahead.
The party has been spending heavily in Alaska on behalf of former Gov. Tony Knowles in his battle with Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican who has been dogged by charges of nepotism because she was appointed to the seat by her father, Gov. Frank H. Murkowski. She has responded by trying to tie Mr. Knowles to Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, and his opposition to oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
In Colorado, Ken Salazar, a Democrat who has twice been elected state attorney general, has been sparring over the economy with his Republican rival, Peter H. Coors, an executive of the family brewing company. Senate Republicans expect to weigh in heavily in coming days with advertising. Democrats are also focusing on Oklahoma, where a former Republican congressman, Tom Coburn, a physician, has been caught up in a controversy over an old malpractice case.
"Oklahoma is tough," Senator Allen conceded. He noted, however, that he expected Mr. Bush to carry the state by 20 percentage points or more, aiding Mr. Coburn in his race with Representative Brad Carson, a Democrat.
In races Republicans have on their target list, they have not given up on unseating Senator Patty Murray in Washington, where she has held a comfortable lead. Her opponent, Representative George Nethercutt, is running a commercial using video of past comments by Ms. Murray regarding Osama bin Laden to suggest she excused the Sept. 11 attacks.
In the remarks, made two years ago, Ms. Murray, whose campaign called the Nethercutt attack desperate, sought to explain Mr. bin Laden's appeal by pointing out his work in Arab countries "building schools, building roads, building infrastructure, building day care facilities.''
Republicans claim new hopes in Wisconsin, where Senator Russell D. Feingold is being challenged by Tim Michels, a Republican businessman, who has run an advertisement mocking Mr. Feingold's long push for changes in campaign finance law. Mr. Michels, who trails in the polls, has also criticized Mr. Feingold for not doing enough to pass legislation allowing the importation of lower-priced prescription drugs from Canada. He has drawn independent criticism for that claim, since Mr. Feingold is a strong proponent of drug imports and a consistent sponsor of legislation to allow the practice.
In the House, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, disputes the assertion that Democrats cannot win the majority.
Ms. Pelosi said 14 Republican incumbents facing serious Democratic opposition had yet to crack the 50 percent mark in polls, putting their seats in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky and elsewhere within reach. Citing that fact as well as the strength of Democratic candidates for 20 open seats, she said she remained optimistic.
Republicans say they see no sign of a Democratic surge and expect a gain in seats, helped in part by a Texas redistricting plan that benefited Republicans. "There is next to no mathematical way we lose the House," said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Amy Walter, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said she estimated a potential swing of three House seats in either direction, which would not shift the balance of power. |
