Submarine Cable to Double in Next 5 Yrs
Submarine Cable Deployment from 1999 to
2004 Will Total Almost 700,000 Route
Kilometers.
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., April 28 /PRNewswire/
via NewsEdge Corporation -- During the
six-year period from 1999 to 2004, 693,948
route kilometers of fiber optic submarine
cable will enter service, according to a
forecast by Pioneer Consulting in its new
report, 1999 Worldwide Submarine Fiber
Optic Systems. By comparison, there were
only 373,612 route kilometers of fiber optic
cable in service as of year- end 1998.
Deployment is forecast to be particularly
heavy in 1999 and 2000, when 335,623 route
kilometers will enter service. Announced
systems with a high likelihood of entering
service already account for 306,558 route
kilometers during these two years.
"Our forecasts show that submarine cable
deployment will be driven by two factors:
increased Internet and corporate data
demand [which the report documents on a
region-by-region basis], and the increasingly
attractive market for privately-funded
submarine cables," said Michael Ruddy,
Senior Fiber Optic Analyst at Pioneer.
"Consortium cables have come under
increased scrutiny from regulators, as
evidenced by the special attention that the
FCC has paid to the conflict between the
Japan-US consortium and Global Crossing.
At the same time, emerging carriers have
become increasingly critical of the
consortium model. Consequently, there will
be an increased tendency for two or more
private cable operators to compete along a
route that previously would have been
controlled by a single, consortium-owned
cable. The effect of this increased
competition will be an extremely robust
submarine cable market," according to
Ruddy.
During 1999, Pioneer forecasts 182,907 new
route kilometers will be put into service.
177,658 of these route kilometers have
already been announced. Major systems
entering service in 1999 include: Alaska
United, Americas-2, Atlantis-2, China-US
Cable Network, Circe, Columbus-3,
Concerto, Esat-1, Esat- 2, FLAG
Extensions, Georgia-Russia, Global
Connect, Global West, Guam- Philippines
(G-P), Japan Information Highway (JIH),
Lev-1, Libya Fiber Optic Network (LFON),
Mid-Atlantic Crossing-1 (MAC-1), Northstar,
Packet-2, Pan American, Sea-Me-We-3,
Sea-Van-1, Solas, Southern Cross, and
Tasman-3.
In 2000, Pioneer forecasts that 152,716
route kilometers will be required to satisfy
demand. Pioneer has determined that
announced systems with a high likelihood of
entering service account for 128,900 route
kilometers. Major systems with a high
likelihood of construction in 2000 include:
Arcos-1, Black Sea Fiber Optic Cable
System (BSFOCS), FLAG Atlantic-1,
Japan-US Cable Network, Maya-1, Pacific
Crossing-1 (PC-1), Pan American
Crossing-1 (PAC-1), SAT-3/Western Africa
Submarine Cable System (SAT-3/WASC),
South Africa-Far East (SAFE), South
American Crossing (SAC), and TAT-14.
The report's deployment forecasts are
drawn from Pioneer's exclusive international
demand model, which determined demand
along six transoceanic routes and in seven
regions. The modeling examined Internet,
corporate data, and voice traffic to determine
capacity requirements in each region. The
forecast also examined all announced cable
systems to determine their likelihood of
being constructed. The demand modeling
was compared to likely cable systems to
determine what additional deployment would
be needed. |
