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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Tom Trader who wrote (7471)10/26/1997 2:25:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius   of 94695
 
Hi TT, >>now I shall ask the same question of anyone else who has a bearish bent: Why would one not invest in companies that do not export to SE Asia and therefore have little or no exposure to the crisis there? Now if the response is that the problems there are the start of a global economic crisis, I don't buy it--unless someone can present convincing reasons that it should be so.

It seems to me like some folks are bent on looking at the extremes in this market, which are possible but not probable. If you can find companies that have absolutly no tie with Asia or any place else in the world you are a much smarter person than me. What company does not sell to someone that is not ultimately tied to global markets. If I look at the chain of money flows we all are tied to this thing. I personally think a global economic crisis has a very small probability, but our markets are another animal. George Soros was successful because he considered the human reaction factor when considering investments. I am not smart enough to know what investors will do, but I believe there is uncertainty out there and this is not generally good for Wall Street.

Now what could happen next week: We could see a dead cat bounce, i.e. shorts taking their recent gains; People buying like crazy because Asia doesn't count (I don't think so) or the market is cheap (maybe). I think we saw fear on Thursday when all global markets went down and the question is: are all those folks that have a fear tendency out of the market and only those with greed left? I don't know the answer to that question.

Just some of my thoughts, Joan
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