Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Ploni who wrote (7493)	11/24/1997 8:58:00 PM
From: schadenfreude	Read Replies (1) of 9285

I've (unfortunately) been short LAMR for some time. I agree with your basic analysis and would like to add that the company's growth is being fueled by acquistions at premium prices. Sound familiar? While this can lead to operating efficiencies and synergies with respect to selling to national accounts, I think they and their competitors (Outdoor Systems, for example) maybe overpaying in this frenzy to get bigger. Outdoor advertising is a great business--tons of free cash flow. Part of the reason is that billboard building is restricted by law, hence reduced competition. The flip side, however, is that growth is limited to rate increases and new forms of outdoor advertising such as bus stop signs. This ain't enterprise software. My take is that the company's high debt load will slow the acquisition strategy and reduce top-line growth. This will eventually weigh heavily on the stock. While insiders hold a lot of stock, they've been selling over the past 6 months. At much lower prices! One final note: I put very little faith in the ratings of vectorvest, but I like to look at them anyway just for fun. FWIW, the last time I check, they pegged the relative value at $4!!! If only it were so.

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