re: Bill's Questions
What exactly is so magical about New Year's day - 1/1/2000? If we are going to experience significant impact from this "crisis", then why haven't these cataclysms occured now or in the past?
Here's an attempt to answer these questions
2000/01/01 is "magical" for the following reasons:
(1) It's the boundary of a data-space that many released systems have not been adequately tested against. Systems that use only the last two digits of the year have many extra discontinuities that must be addressed that never occur for systems that use a 4-digit date. One obvious example is division by zero.
Then why haven't similar such cataclysms occurred yet?
Actually isolated cataclysms occur from time-to-time. An unexpected condition causes an automated system to fail. So far, when such events happen, companies focus their resources to fix it.
For example, earlier this week, AT&T's frame relay network crashed. (http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980414/telecom_at_1.html) But it was only a single crisis, so AT&T focused on it and restored service after less than a day of down-time. If AT&T had multiple, simultaneous problems, it would have been much more difficult for them, and their customers (who used the network for financial transaction processing).
Y2K is potentially very nasty because century transition bugs have been demonstrated to cause problems in an extraordinary variety of automated systems. If not fixed, a multitude of problems will be encountered in a very short amount of calendar time (from mid 1999 to first quarter 2000).
Bonus question :-)
Why do I take Y2K seriously
(1) From personal experience, I know that large system (software, hardware, ...) upgrades rarely finish on time. Alot of large system upgrades are promised to fix things ahead of time. The track record for earlier such promises is not very good.
(2) I used to do software testing for a living. I learned how to break things by identifying unexpected pivotal areas in the data space. 2000 is clearly one such area.
(3) I've done coding and maintenance support for a living. I know how easy it is to mess up on date-involved calculations, and how long it takes to fix such problems.
(4) I've done some systems integration for a living as well. It can actually be fun tracking down a problem when many systems are inter-connected. Lots of simultaneous problems may create a cataclysm that can't be easily fixed.
(5) I have industry peers that tell me they know of Y2K bugs in software where they have lost the source code.
(6) Their already exists a shortage of engineers and programmers. As remedation efforts pick up, will there be enough professionals to get the job done on time?
CAVEATS
Please note that this has zero to do with the "survivalist/religious nutcases" hyping Y2K.
Easy profits for the Y2K industry are not guaranteed. IT labor shortage with its lack of workers and rising profits may put a damper on profits. Unrealistic contracts to fix unfixable systems may bankrupt some Y2K companies. |
