Terrorism & Gold -
By Stephen Clayson
10 Jul 2007
LONDON -- With a fresh wave of terrorist
attacks hitting London recently, it is interesting to ask
what effect this is likely to have on the gold market in the
longer term.
The renewed terrorist onslaught here in the U.K. indicates
that the problem of militant Islam is only likely to get
worse, not better.
It also indicates that the security services are clearly
incapable, although surely not for want of trying, of
keeping tabs on, and hence interdicting, every plot.
The London car bombs of 29 June were foiled by sheer good luck,
but we can’t count on that to save our bacon each time a
militant Islamist cell attempts to create mayhem.
The Glasgow airport attack the following day, while crude
in its conception and execution, was a sort of success for
the terrorists.
The images of their burning car rammed up against the
bollards out the entrance to the airport terminal will
not soon be forgotten.
And worse still, no one knows what other plots are being
hatched as we speak in one of the Islamic enclaves that
are scattered across modern Britain.
Rightly or wrongly, we have acclimatised to the threat
of Islamic terrorism as a part of our lives.
Stoicism is the order of the day.
While many people lack much faith in the government’s ability
to protect them, they have no option but to go about their
daily business and continue for example, to fly, despite
the position of airports at the top of
the terrorists’ hit list.
While this minimises the economic disruption entailed by
the terrorist threat, it does nothing to lessen the
likelihood of another atrocity.
Gold was given a fillip by the attacks in London on 29 June,
closing up $8.30 an ounce on the first say of trading
after the attacks, although with the aid of a
weakening dollar.
Not a particularly strong fillip then, and certainly not
like the one that followed the 9/11 attacks.
It is likely that the amateurish nature of the attacks
carried out in Britain and the fact that no loss of life
or even injuries were caused diminished the element of
panic needed to spur the gold price in an event like this.
Another attack, heaven forbid, on anything even approaching
the scale of 9/11 would probably have had a much more
significant effect on the gold price, as might an attack
on the U.S., which remarkably has been spared terrorist
bloodshed since the destruction of the World Trade Centre.
Another attack on the U.S. would be of more significance to
gold not least because it would cause the dollar to weaken.
The dollar is still the big story as far as gold goes.
Gold inversely tracks the greenback, and responds to moves
in the dollar, and even to developments that look bullish
or bearish for the dollar, more reliably than it responds
to any other factor.
But gold does react to terrorism, even as the world
seemingly becomes more inured to it.
An intensifying terrorist threat, not just in the U.K. and
the U.S., will provide an ongoing incentive to hold gold.
Back in the U.K., The fact that the terrorists who carried
out the most recent attacks were doctors recruited to
the country, evidently after the minimum of vetting, to
serve in the state-run National Health Service,
demonstrates that the current immigration system is a gift
to terrorists. But don’t count on the government to see that.
The administration of newly endued Prime Minister
Gordon Brown is just as steeped in political correctness
as Tony Blair’s was, and as a result, the likelihood of
it taking meaningful action to mitigate the terrorist
threat in the U.K. is small.
So sadly, we can be almost certain that further attacks
will occur, most likely with loss of life as a consequence.
And investors can count on terrorism as a continuing source
of support for the gold price, albeit not the primary one.
Goldcorp RE: maybe a 25 year bull this time :) -
be ok for me.
americano, Gold Second wave LT bull trend started -
of the 5-wave Elliott pattern -
Gold's 1st bull wave -
1971 - 1980 was 9 years Au bull long -
2001 - started the 2nd wave Au bull wave -
of the 5 -wave Elliott pattern -
RE: Q. - gg for a big stock can still double inside of a
month given some higher prices in gold here easily -
Well Swiss America funds - on the above chart -
predicting the Gold bullion - the 2nd Gold LT bull wave -
to go to about $2,750.00/oz -
well I agree that in the past, when Gold bullion doubled
in price -
the major Gold miners often did much better and
the share prices often tripled to much higher -
still Gold at $2,750.00 complete the 2nd wave -
but its 5-wave in Elliott pattern -
still 3-wave of LT Gold
bull to go -
goldcorp.com
Imo. Tia.
In God We Trust -
God Bless
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