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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (752091)12/10/2013 12:24:05 PM
From: TimF   of 1575727
 
The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years(e.g., 1998 to 2012). {9.4, Box 9.2}
So they are clearly pointing out that for the past 15 years they observed trends have not followed the simulated trends. In other words, their models had absolutely no predictive value.

The obvious response to that is that15 years is too short of time frame for an overall trend to not be swamped by noise.

The obvious counterarguments to that response are

1 - The current models haven't been in existence longer than 15 years, so they have no demonstrated predictive value. ("Predicting" past events isn't hard. You can massage your model to be correct with past data. Even if you don't deliberately do that, you discard models that past data shows to be faulty and eventually you are left only with ones that meet past data).

2 - Yes 15 years is too short of time frame to have high confidence that other factors will cancel out, but hundreds of years is as well, and if you ignore changes on that time scale then you have to toss out all the data that show any global warming plausibly connected to human activity. I wouldn't go that far, but I would have to say that some discount should be applied to that data.
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