My shot:
1. The emperor has no clothes. When MS,MER,C have to go outside the country for money it means the whole country is gorged on debt. The banks can not get money here unless the fed GIVES it to them. An auction or discount will not work since they are gorged and don't want more debt, just debt relief.If the smartest guys in the country got in this mess then the smartest guys in goverment are not so smart either.
Possibly a total lack of confidence in the goverment developing.
2. No confidence in goverment means no confidence in the currency. An alternative preservative is needed.
3. In the 1930's prices of almost everything went down except gold.Now however we are seeing food and energy rise instead of fall. Oil rise ripples through everything eventually. So while one might expect deflation, it might be we have a vicious buzzsaw scenario where there is both deflation and inflation. Deflation in housing and property as the cost to heat, cool, and insure rise[not to mention property taxes] while the cost of food, plastics,medicine,chemicals rise as well. A downsize in housing coming as McMansions become as hated as SUV's.Inflation in "stuff" and materials in a world where people are a dime a dozen. Even in the 1930's the oil use went up every year yet the price stayed down as there was a surplus of easy to get crude.Expect even a gut wrenching recession to not drop oil this time.The lifeblood of the world for the forseeable future is oil.
4. Be long the renminbi and Russian ruble. Be long gold stocks,gold,silver,oil,oil stocks. Have some assets outside the US in case "emergency" measures are instituted such as Roosevelt did in calling in all the gold. Be long Ag stocks.
A real shortage of food could develop. Short the US consumer[debtor]. Short F,GM. Stay short housing.Buy Uranium futures and stocks. |
