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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Matthew Leo who wrote (7574)2/3/1997 12:19:00 AM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour   of 42771
 
Matthew - Thanks for the meticulous response. I think it is true that what I do could be labeled as TA although I do not follow formulated rules of any specific theory about technical analysis. Like you, however, I do notice the narrowing of the spread when it happens and the up versus down volumes. I also thought the resistances/supports for NOVL were at 10 5/8, 11 5/8, and 12 3/8 respectively. When I said that this rise was not just technical, I meant that it has a fundamental reason and would not have taken place without. I realize now that these very reason would drive the technicals in your terminology. Notice that my accent was on the word "not just" technical - or maybe that qualification was just in my mind. Anyhow, the last time I remember NOVL trading over 12 MM shares a day for more than one day was about two years ago when the rumor about IBM acquiring the company for 28 a share was all over the media. The fact that there is no such rumor at this time makes me believe that this move is real, now and it is the result of many factors one of which the realization that Novell is not about to relinguish its leadership in the NOS as it expressed recently by a world respected organisation. Another contributing element is the feeling that several other stocks has run up too much and got ahead of themselves (see this week's Barron about Microsoft). Under the circumstances people would tend to hedge their position by moving money into depressed value type of investment such as NOVL. Good luck to all longs on NOVL. Ghassan.
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