The Big Pharma Report: 5/02/99
As an optimistic PFEr, I expect the knife to head to the ceiling this week with good news coming out of the AUA Annual Meeting on Viagra.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Big Pharma Scoreboard 4/3099
-Rotation out of growth stocks and Big Pharma continued with a strong 5.5% weekly decline in a flat Dow environment. Best explanation of current rotation: "When earnings are scare, as they were last year, investors had to pay a very high price for the stocks of companies that were growing earnings. This year, earnings have become less scarce, and you can buy them at a lower price, because that scarcity value has decline." Douglass Cliggott, JP Morgan
- All "Healthy 13" declined last week led (?) by SGP (-10.0%) and PFE (-9.4%).
-PFE's April decline of 17.0% was its highest monthly decline in over 8 years. The largest most recent PFE monthlly decline occurred during last August (-15.3%).
-Has the falling Pharma knife hit the table? Barrons is suggesting it has: "Reversal of fortune?....The big oils now trade at comparable price/earnings ratios to most of the major drug stocks. Time to switch back into stocks."
-Overall, Big Pharma (-3.9%YTD) is trailing the Dow (+17.9%) and the NASTie (+16.0%)
-Only 3 Pharmas are showing YTD gains; AMGN (+17.5%), the surprising JNJ (+16.2%) and even more surprising AHP (+8.2%).
-LLY (-17.2% YTD) needs Zoloft.
. Price % Chg % Chg % Chg
Rank . 04/30/99 Week April YTD 1999
1 Amgen 61.44 -5.7% -17.9% 17.5%
2 J&J 97.50 -4.2% 4.3% 16.2%
3 Amer 61.00 -6.5% -6.5% 8.2%
4 Abbott 48.38 -8.6% 3.3% -1.3%
5 Pharma 55.63 -7.0% -10.8% -1.8%
6 Merck 70.38 -7.1% -12.2% -4.6%
7 Bristol 63.56 -5.2% -0.9% -5.0%
8 Smith 65.69 -2.5% -12.6% -5.5%
9 Pfizer 115.06 -9.4% -17.0% -8.0%
10 Warner 67.81 -0.1% 2.4% -9.8%
11 Scher 48.31 -10.0% -8.1% -12.6%
12 Glaxo 58.00 -4.0% -13.4% -16.5%
13 Lilly 73.63 -0.8% -13.4% -17.2%
Big Pharma 68.18 -5.5% -8.7% -3.9%
Dow 10,789 0.9% 10.2% 17.5%
S&P 500 1,335 -1.6% 3.8% 8.6%
NASDAQ 2,543 -1.8% 3.3% 16.0%
News/chart/quote links to Big Pharma and ED stocks:
Yahoo! PFE News biz.yahoo.com
Technical Analysis of PFE
stockconsultant.com
Five Day Chart of PFE versus the Dow quicken.com
A great PFE Stat Website dailystocks.com
Labpuppy.com Drug Stock Commentary (scroll down after opening) labpuppy.com
A New Investment Website Worth A Try
bridge.com
Big Pharma
Yahoo Link
quote.yahoo.com
Motley Fool Link
quote.fool.com
ED Stocks
Yahoo Link
quote.yahoo.com
Motley Fool Link
quote.fool.com
PFE Split Information
-On the April 22, 1999 Annual Meeting, PFE shareholders officially approved an increase in authorized outstanding shares that will permit a 3-1 split.
-Following the Annual Meeeting, the PFE Board announced the 3-1 split and the effective date of 6/30/99.
The 1999 Pharma Portfolio Challenge:
Motley Fool /SI Challenge Highlights
-MERCKGAL (+8.1%) is the leading Pharmer portfolio with her play on AHP (Portfolio: AHP 99%, MRK 1%).
-SHORT PFE (+7.9% moved up to second place (Portfolio: 100% short PFE)
-The PEABODY PEAK SHORT (+9.6%) moved up to #3. This portfolio shorts PFE at confirmed Peabody Peaks (in the amount of $833 representing 1/12th of the original cash investment of $10,000). (Portfolio: 63% cash, 23.90 shares short PFE) purchased at the 4 1999 Peabody Peaks; 134.63, 144.50, 150.13, and 130.13)
-The five 100% PFErs (-8.0) dropped to 41st place (Portfolio: 100% PFE)
-Supporting the principles behind the Peabody Model: PEABODY PURCHASE (+0.5%) is beating the PFE DRIP (-2.1%).
In 1999, the following 8 composite portfolios** have been created for comparative purposes:
-BIG PHARMA**- Portfolio is indexed versus the Big Pharma growth rate
-CASH**- Portfolio is 100% in cash with a fixed 5% annual return
-PEABODY PURCHASE**- Portfolio was originally 100% in cash with $833 purchases of PFE at Peabody Pending Valleys as called by Mr. P
-PFE DRIP**- Portfolio is 100% in cash with a $833 monthly DRIP for PFE
-PFE DRIP SHORT**- Portfolio is 100% in cash with a $833 monthly DRIP for shorting PFE
-SHORT COX II**- Portfolio is 50% short PFE and 50% short MRK
-SHORT PFE**- Portfolio is 100% short PFE.
PEABODY PEAK SHORT**- Portfolio was originally 100% in cash with $833 short purchases of PFE at confirmed Peabody Peaks.
Click here for a breakdown of the holdings of the 64 Challenge portfolios
www3.techstocks.com
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