POLITICS
Generic Congressional Ballot Republicans Lead by 11 Points on Congressional Ballot:
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Friday, March 18, 2022
The 2022 midterm elections are now 235 days away, and Republicans have an 11-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 50% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Republicans have lost two points of their congressional advantage since February, when they led 50%-37%.
In March 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a six-point advantage (46% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.
The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-17, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The 11-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 19-point advantage among independents. While 94% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 13% would vote for some other candidate and 14% are undecided.
Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 28% of black voters and 48% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent (62%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 35% of other minorities would vote Democrat.
The so-called “gender gap” is nearly non-existent in the latest findings, with men (49%) one point less likely than women voters (50%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates.
Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 53% to 31%, but 59% of voters 40 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.
Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their largest advantage – 58% to 28% – among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year.
The Republican advantage is strongest among retirees, who favor the GOP by a 20-point margin, 57%-37%, over Democrats.
More than half of voters believe cheating affected the 2020 election and an overwhelming majority say the issue of election integrity will be important in the midterm elections.
With gas prices soaring, energy policy is likely to be a major issue in the midterm election campaign, and v oters strongly favor a policy of promoting domestic petroleum production.
rasmussenreports.com |
