There is more happening late in the calendar year than just taxloss ... i think much of it stems from our species' reaction to the duration of daylight in the northern hemisphere - an impulse to clean out the old in preparation for the new year which follows the solstice .... taxloss is part of it, stimulated by regulations, but underlying even our system of arranging a calendar is this length-of-day rhythm, it goes back millennia, as a core motivator to our psychology
In the speculator's year there are imho four months - Taxloss, Winter, Summer, and Septemberrally ... the best gains i've had over the years came from sitting quiet way down on the bid about ten days before the winter solstice, and sticking shares up quite high on the ask about ten days before the spring equinox ... it's only a ninety-day period but i bet two thirds or more of my winnings have come within it
So in that way, i do tend to agree with you, there will be trading opps galore in playing 'January Effect' .... ltb&h is another matter, of course we don't see you advocating this either
You make some excellent points in this post - there will be some shares unreasonably sold off, baby thrown out with the bathwater ... and at some point people will care about this, become willing to buck the general trend, pick off the good ones .... they'll have to have profits though, or a clear probability of near-future profits, it'll be a highly selective business for a long time out
I know little to nothing of how non-resource companies work, especially techs, only ever played them from their charts .... but there is one thing on which i am curious - Will Nortel come back to any degree, or will Cisco eat its lunch? ... nt was the premier canuck share not long ago, i have friends with a little investment club who re-bought at 30, then doubled up at 18, now it's under a loonie ..... catching the bottom in this puppy could be seen as patriotic effort, this is IF - ahem - there is or will be a bottom |
