ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (76131)	1/27/2023 8:23:12 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) of 97462

I don't know what they will do. Politically, everyone wants them to stop and bring back the bubble. Realistically, they are just getting back to neutral and need to keep hiking a bit more to kill inflation or risk an echo. Asia is stimulative, job market is tight, oil market is tight with little cushion left, a lot of commodities are bouncing and inflation pressure is doing the whack-a-mole with things popping up here and there. On the other hand, interest rates are a blunt and slow tool. It takes a while to hit and can affect some areas without affecting others. I still think that they need to speed up QT and focus less on rates. It's all the excess money that's the problem, not anything to do with rates. There's 6-7 trillion dollars out there that shouldn't be, more if you count stimulus from overseas. The last few bond auctions saw huge demand from foreigners. Last year China and Japan were dumping but now foreign demand is back. There's plenty of buying to allow the Fed to double or triple QT and drain.

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