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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 303.84+1.3%Dec 22 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (76160)7/3/2017 10:47:03 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

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Excellent table.
LRCX is in 3rd place with a Next Year earnings estimate of 10.84 and the price closed at 141.43 giving a PE of 13.0. Its growth rate is estimated at 24 which gives a quite low PEG of 0.54. Nice numbers. INTC is 3rd from the bottom, down -7.0%. Maybe they are going out of business or just an "old" company with no pizzazz? AMAT and LRCX have nearly equal estimated PEs and growth rates.
I own and trade all three. AMAT and LRCX have done so well all I seem to do lately is take profits but they could be low enough for aggressive buyers to step in soon. Intel I also took profits in twice and it is now close to where I'd buy back shares....

I track all closely and I believe the earnings growth numbers for AMAT and LRCX are much higher than just a year ago... that sort of bullish exuberance historically comes at tops and this market has been so good for so long... I'm hesitant to get very aggressive putting tons of profits taken back in too quickly, a mistake I sometimes make so nowadays I try to be less aggressive and have patience.

I'm not sure if you've kept the data in spreadsheet form, but it would be interesting to see the difference in 5 year forward growth estimates for December 2008, March 2009, today and a few data points in between such as the peaks and valleys on my LRCX chart (March 2011, Sept 2012, Dec 2015, Feb 2016 perhaps?)

I have the data in old newsletters but memory says analysts are most optimistic at tops and most pessimistic at bottoms for the future...
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