"I expected that for the past 2 years"
How funny you say that, I went back to todays date (December 20th) postings in 2003 and the theme of the postings have not changed much.
Please read your note below and a few others that follow it:
To: russwinter who wrote (3669) 12/20/2003
From: Vi
Yeah, it makes sense.
I think in the short run, things are most influenced
by derivatives, since this market has outgrown all other
markets. That's why past relationships between different
markets (such as dollar and interest rates) don't seem
to be working. At least, not yet. In particular, stocks
and bonds so far failed to move down as the dollar declined
some 30% from the peak. My take on this is that the main
derivative market in interest rates is highly manipulated,
and so far is holding, as banks pile up more and more into
long-term bonds, borrowing short term. They short the
dollar to hedge their bets. Some of this liquidity spills
over to the stock market.
We'll see how it goes, but my bet is when bonds finally
break, the normal relationships will be restored in
a violent manner. That would mean much higher long-term
interest rates, and much lower stock prices.
Message 19616495
In the same time frame DOW has gone from 8,000s in 2003 to 12,000s in 2006 (a small 50% increase).
Home prices have gone up at least 50%.
And . . .
Fuel costs are up at least 30%,
Health care costs over the roof,
Iraqi invasion did not help the situation either - So next time people drive their SUV and Hummers, please think about the americans and Iraqis who lost their lives to keep your tank full.
I just hope we are right about our prediction of the bursting of the bubbles in 2007. |
