Ronco, RE: CREAF meeting estimates.
I don't think they will have a problem. While revenues have been flat versus year-ago numbers, this quarter should benefit by a large increase in DVD sales. It is hard to say how much it they will contribute, but using a conservative estimate of 150,000 units sold (probably slightly higher than this, since their ramp is targeting 100K/Month) and a $200 ASP (also probably much higher), that is 30 million in added revenue. Also to be considered is that CREAF will benefit more from the currency devaluation than is realized. You can't say it is totally beneficial, since sales will have to be lowered. It also probably won't affect gross margins very much, since lower margins in Asia will be offest by higher ones in US and Europe. I would, though, expect net profit margins to be higher because of lower labor costs, etc.
The big question, IMO, is how rebates will affect this quarter. I am no accountant, but would this affect revenue or earnings? Do they just write it off?
I would guess earnings in the low .70's.
Brian |
