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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: skinowski who wrote (762713)5/11/2022 5:25:46 PM
From: TimF2 Recommendations

Recommended By
greenspirit
THE WATSONYOUTH

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Ukraine being neutral was not something Russia could ever have high confidence in the long term. They could get some sort of promise from Ukraine or from NATO (any NATO member, it only takes one to veto expanding membership). But whatever promise they get would only be a promise from that particular leader, and the next administration in whatever country they were relying on could change that policy.

OTOH before Russia started to get aggressive with other former Soviet republics, the core countries of NATO were in many ways becoming less aligned against Russia. Many were wondering if NATO had a purpose anymore and militaries shrunk and in many cases become very unready. They could have had less risk to their survival (witch even now is extremely modest anyway) by the simple expedient of being nicer. Potentially NATO might even been on its way to being disbanded, more likely it would shamble on but become less meaningful. Finland and Sweden would never have seriously considered joining. Ukraine would likely have not joined (although they would have wanted to join the EU which has a lesser security promise). The modest theoretical risk to Russia would have faded. Instead they tried to push everyone around that they could and would up decreasing their own security.
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