Hi hdl; Re: "if u know so much more than other investors, have spent so much time and effort re rambus, it is so clear to you, why haven't u shorted rambus, bought puts or found some way to make a buck out of the situation?"
I didn't go long because it is clear to me that in the long run, Rambus is doomed. I didn't go short because it was obvious to me that idiots (and you may not know who you are) were capable of running the stock price to insane levels. Rambus fooled Intel, how could they not fool mom and pop? I knew this going in, even back in 1999 I posted that Rambus, while dead, was dangerous to short.
As it turned out, the crooks who run this company put out enough twisted press releases to run the stock price to $145 per share. Maybe I should have been able to see that, they hadn't stopped at twisting every comparison between their technology and the industry standard. But did I want to risk my money in a company that did essentially nothing but put out lies?
And why would I know to short it at $145? Why not short it at $50 per share, that was just as insane a price. You see? Shorting is dangerous as hell.
I've only made four short term trading suggestions on RMBS, and 2 of them were buys. The first sell was obvious when the Markman decision was written up in the trade press, and the other sell was when it became clear that Judge Payne was about to rule against Rambus on the last of their patents.
Right now, things don't look so good. Italy and Germany look like they're not going to do anything for months. Before then, Micron is going to court, and Micron is known to be quite adept in court. And there are a few loose ends to tie up in the Infineon case.
On the market share side, a whole bunch of companies are coming out with DDR and SDRAM chipsets for the P4 over the next few months. That means that you're going to be sending early motherboards out to review fairly soon. Unless you're very certain that RDRAM is a great idea, you might consider now a good time to hold off on buying any more of this stuff.
-- Carl |
