In the meantime, our “experts” are pushing Taiwan to change the character of their weapons purchases - to buy more “small” weapons like Javelins and Stingers - more fit for an asymmetric war - and they base it on Ukraine experience. They are actually preparing Taiwan to fight a war similar to Ukraine.
The problem is that the Taiwanese population seems utterly disinterested in fighting any war. There is also the small issue that Ukraine may be losing. The excerpt below is an objection to the dominant (among bureaucrats) future scenario for Taiwan:
But some analysts believe using Ukraine as a model for Taiwan is the wrong approach. Randall Schriver, who served as the Pentagon’s top Asia policy official in the Trump administration, noted that Ukraine may have thwarted a swift Russian victory — but at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and millions of people displaced.
“If you tell Taiwan, ‘this is the plan for you,’ that’s not very comforting,” Schriver said.
The Ukraine analogy is also “problematic” because of Taiwan’s geography — the Chinese must cross 100 miles of ocean to get to the island, whereas Russia and Ukraine share a 1,200-mile land border, Schriver noted. Any Chinese invasion would be visible from miles away and vulnerable to standoff weapons. On the other side, resupply — an issue crucial to Ukraine’s defense — would be much more difficult in the case of Taiwan, a weakness Beijing may seek to exploit with an air and sea blockade. China keeps saying that Taiwan can do anything they want - except proclaim independence. Which means, of course, our “experts” will want to keep arming them until it clearly looks like they’re preparing for an independence war. And if China doesn’t invade, at some point they’ll be made look like they’re simply afraid. That they’re cowards. Which means - since loss of face is unacceptable for China - there will be a war.
politico.com |
